June 13, 2019 at 2:25 am #15861Justin RodgersMember
Question(s) for David and Brandon but, anyone please feel free to add to the conversation. I could use more context as I’m still quite novice with my economics/market knowledge.
I have concerns as to just how strong the recent move up (last week) really is. Here’s what I’m considering, and I expect I might be a bit confused, or even just incorrect on a few points that I make here. Please provide context or correction where possible.
It seems most of the rally last week was driven by safe havens to include gold. Also bonds have seen a steady move up. Small caps are lagging, not leading. Additionally, if I remember correctly, energy and oil often will “fuel the markets” in a rally, but these are at a low (although we might be seeing the beginnings of a bottom/turnaround).
These seem like risk-off indications to me and I’m wondering if my analysis is either incorrect or maybe I’m giving these indications too much weight and other bullish indications too little. Perhaps my fear/greed bias is seeing too many negatives at the moment, Anyone have some thoughts here?
Also, should interest rate cuts help bring up oil/energy prices? Would rate cuts also cause recent uptrends in bond prices to reverse to the downside for a while? Maybe in the near term we’re looking at some volatility and not much of a trend – at least until interest rates get cut and more risk-on indications reveal themselves?? I’m looking forward to Portfolio management this week, because I’d like to review whether we’re tilting towards XLE and getting in if energy is undervalued.
Ahhh… I know, I know! who ever knows? I’m reading The Intelligent Investor right now and clearly see how pondering these things too much can be such a futile effort! No crystal ball and the best we can do is stay disciplined, manage risk, adjust accordingly to changing conditions, and seek wise positions that provide realistic returns… still, I want to try and wrap my head around the mechanics of the markets better. See how it all unfolds. 🙂
Thanks in advance Coaches and Scholars!
June 13, 2019 at 10:07 am #15867Justin RodgersMember
Another commitment has come up for me this afternoon, so unfortunately I likely won’t make it to Portfolio Management. But I’ll catch the recording later this evening and see where we’re at. Have a great day everybody!
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