BE CAREFUL

[Kevin Morgan]

Folks, I don’t know what the latest is from the Market Outlook team, too busy to have been following recently.

What I do know is that there is substantial potential this market follows the 1929 market pattern.  Find a daily chart and review it.  If we follow it, we are in the first significant kick-back rally (B wave up), and the real carnage is soon to come with some massive price moves down.

So if you are thinking “this bear is finished” and the bull market has resumed, well maybe but I would be SHOCKED, given the fundamentals.  The CV infection rate is going up EXPONENTIALLY around the world, and in areas of the US.  The possibility of being ‘ordered back to work” quickly would only pour gasoline on it all with a match thrown on in short order, and the notion that such an approach would “save the economy” is simple absurdity, as the rate of infection would skyrocket even more, leading to panic and a TOTAL shutdown.  Down that path lies a depression.

So be very, very, very careful re: any long plays here.  My $0.02.  YMMV!!!  Good luck.

[Linda Albers]

Kevin, my brilliant reply disappeared before it was submitted.

[Gerry Keller]

Good Advice Kevin, David is also talking about retesting bottoms, so.

[Eugene Chen]

kevin, i hear you and this seems to be all i have been thinking about for weeks….depression? or more like 1987? dave seems to think more like 1987, not great depression. i can see both sides. on one hand, i cant see this getting better in 2020. we will struggle with this for a long time. jobs will be lost, and some wont come back. but on the other hand, the curve is starting to flatten, giving people hope.

at this time, i agree with dave….possibly test the low levels (a bit higher or lower), then bounce off that to a large consolidation.

kevin, just to be clear, when you say 1929 patterns, we fell for 2.5 years. is that what you are saying could happen?

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