April 7, 2018 at 7:01 pm #1321
i dont know either. i have alot of long term “SPY” like positions on that not sure what to do about. for those of you who have been holding SPY for a long time in something like 401K or retirement accounts, are you guys really putting stop losses on? some of these positions i thought id just hold forever, thereby NOT having any stop loss.
April 8, 2018 at 10:39 am #1358Tommy CellaMember
I’m going to keep an eye on a significant break of the 200 day moving average to take action.
April 8, 2018 at 11:27 am #1364Ronald PearsonMember
The market has been strong for nine years with a few bumps in the road along the way. Is this another bump? Or are we now going to experience long term pain? Six months from now, I would like to look back knowing I did not panic.
April 8, 2018 at 11:31 am #1366Phil Van OstrandMember
Hate to sound like I am talking my book, but for what it’s worth here are my decision points:
1. The 200-day EMA is 258.5 more or less coming into Monday’s trade. That’s the first line in the sand;
2. It will be really HARD for one day’s action to bring the 50-day EMA down to cross the 200, but a bad wekk can make that happen.
3. A break below the Bollinger lower band; particularly a close below the lower band sends me the bomb shelter.
Last week’s island reversal on Thursday, coupled with the weak day on Friday, sets up an uncetain, possibly unhappy, price action backdrop to the balance of the technical picture.
Call me more than concerned and starting to hedge up my book and reconsidering some stops.
At least that’s the way I see it…..what am I missing?
April 8, 2018 at 3:09 pm #1391
i dont think you are missing anything, but we are above the 200 day MA for now, we are above support (support more likely to be held than broken in general), also a long tail on the candle from friday, hopefully we bounce up tomorrow!
April 10, 2018 at 3:29 pm #1590
close to breaking out!
April 10, 2018 at 5:57 pm #1612
This is a fabulous interchange. I like it, I love it, I want some more of it. ERC
April 17, 2018 at 10:17 pm #2286
so far so good….
April 18, 2018 at 9:19 am #2310
Eugene, one never knows. So what about that crystal ball? ERC
April 18, 2018 at 12:50 pm #2323
right now, my crystal ball is successful in seeing yesterdays prices
April 18, 2018 at 12:59 pm #2325
LOL, Eugene. I ‘hear’ you! ERC
April 18, 2018 at 5:41 pm #2395
chart looks healthy for now. looks like market focusing on earnings now. havent heard the evil word tariff this week or last week!
April 18, 2018 at 8:23 pm #2437
Eugene, you have a healthy sense of humor. I don’t pay too much attention to news anymore, unless it concerns one of my holdings.
It seems that many investors (not day traders) have become “jaded” on news. ERC
April 19, 2018 at 12:16 am #2458
depends on how you trade. if you trade long term positions or dividend positions, news makes less impact. if you trade short term options, news affects you alot more.
i think the market is just more focused on other issues now. who knows maybe next week we will be concerned with syria, russia, tariffs, etc
April 19, 2018 at 9:09 am #2465
I “invest” in DGI long term. My SPs are typically to acquire more. Agreed, who knows the next geo-political issue? ERC
April 19, 2018 at 9:55 am #2474Kirti ParmarMember
As David has been saying, it is possible the current breakout may not hold as the volumes have been light and the candles have also been reasonably small. If were to break to the downside, we do have quite string support around 258 like Phil said. If it breaks this level, weak support at 252-254 level (3-month lows).
As Phil said, if SPY closes below the lower BB, I would duck-and-cover as well!
April 19, 2018 at 11:38 am #2478
Kirti, I suppose anything is possible. ERC
April 19, 2018 at 3:27 pm #2510Jonathan SolomonMember
SPX is now (4/19/18 late afternoon) back above its 50-day MA, and if it stays there that would be positive, keeping us in the top half of the range David S. is always talking about. Also, it pays not to get too excited about any move that is well within the weekly range.
I’ve stuck a long-term moving average ribbon on my charts with plots ranging from 100 to 130-days to remind myself to think long term. The ribbon says the bull market is still in place.
Money is where my mouth is. 😉 Sold May @ $272 SPY calls yesterday right before the drop because I didn’t like the afternoon choppy price action. Bought back in this morning over a period of three hours with June 272 and 274 calls in the lower half (of what looks to be) the day’s range.
April 19, 2018 at 4:10 pm #2519
yea, as of close today, we are above 30 ,50, and 200 day MA. long tail hammer on SPX
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