April 7, 2020 at 7:52 pm #24438Eugene ChenMember
id like to say i am, but i am scared if we go through an extended multi year bear market. hard to see accounts and net worth going below #’s we arent comfortable with.
that being said, id like to say i hope i can hold on for whatever happens and take advantage of the year later gains we will likely see.
most people who sell and say “ill buy back at lower prices” ON LONG TERM POSITIONS usually are net losers….so hard to time the market.
April 8, 2020 at 8:15 am #24460Gerry KellerMember
You have to be deliberate and intentional. I was able to close out of most positions at gains, use stop loss limits. I have rebought some things at much lower prices already, but sitting on sides with a lot of assets. Parking in safe funds that pay dividends. Remember the stock market is forward looking. At this point it is looking at end of virus, not looking at economy yet.
April 8, 2020 at 3:02 pm #24481Kevin MorganMember
I certain AM NOT holding, I sold my investment positions in equities in early March. And I am NOT buying back yet either.
I have to disagree with you strongly. Buy and hold through a bear market is a Very Bad Idea. It might take years, a decade even or more to recover your investments. Bear markets HAPPEN, and they can go down 40%…50%…60%…70%…80%. You going to just hold and hold and hold? You MUST have stops (in my opinion), and frankly, they should have been hit already. BUT you are being given a GIFT here with this B wave rally. A chance to get out at far higher prices. It’s getting close to finishing, I don’t recommend you wait too much long. But I am not a CTA and my advice is for entertainment and education only, “not trading advice”. Make your decisions. The material on the Ciovacco capital “short takes” videos from a few months ago addresses the problems of buy and hold quite comprehensively. My $0.02!!! Good luck.
And yes, buying back in lower is “hard”. But there are plenty of indicators when a bottom is in. Structural, sentiment, economic. Learn about how to assess and monitor those. Ultimately, there will be a total capitulation move down and then a V reversal…and that will be the time, when EVERYONE is bearish and it appears the world is ending. Then…BUY!!! And remember, cash is a FANTASTIC “investment” when everything is getting cheaper and cheaper.
April 8, 2020 at 5:16 pm #24484Eugene ChenMember
kevin–i appreciate your opinion.
i guess i should clarify what im referring to. i meant who is buying and holding their long term positions. not short term positions. this might be obvious, but wanted to clarify.
that being said, that is the eternal debate, stop loss or no stop loss. i tend to side with brandon on this, in particular with DGI stocks. stops DO help in bear markets, when they come, and really help most in big down markets like this year and 2008. they dont help much in 5-10% drops. maybe just me, but its hard to know when to get in. there are always indicators, but the bottom is only known in hindsight.
another large variable is how long are you willing to hold for? if you are holding positions for 10 years or longer, id say the clear advantage is buy and hold (assuming you are holding good quality stocks with hopefully increasing dividends). getting in and out is almost always a losing strategy compared to buy and hold over long terms. you simply wont capture vital gains that you would get with buy and hold. of course with B/H, you need to be able to sit through bad times, which isnt easy.
of course, if you are buying more beta stocks like ZOOM or beyond meat, you might not want to hold long term unless you really believe in the company.
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