I like the CBRL setup in progress; thanks!
However, I don’t like entry yet. There is no long trigger in my view. Price has come down to the 76.4-78.6% Fibonacci retrace zone. This is a very high potential turn area just from a structural perspective, in addition to the dividend reasoning. Grimes has shown the monotonically increasing probability of a pivot as a retracement goes deeper and deeper, and the “last stop” that strongly salutes fractal structure is this zone.
But we need to see some bottom structuure, a pivot in process; that’s when I will view this as wholly set up. Then a break of some structure (a neckline formed by pivot highs within the bottom structure action, or a break of a larger downtrend line, or hourly trend switching back to “up” or “strong up”, etc.) given us initial confirmation that the pivot is real.
Then I’ll see a put spread underneath. Assuming the overall MarketState is still nice and healthy (up trend!).
Thanks again for the pointer.
ps: I like it when you focus on trades of stock with price over 70 (well over 100 even better). That makes the not too far away puts still valuable enough to sell. I don’t like selling only $30 of premium per spread; I like selling $60 to $100 of premium per spread; it’s much more efficient. That requires stocks at higher prices.
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